| Press clippings related to West Bengal, India and globalisation The Telegraph 03.01.2001 "In the biggest power breakdown ever in Northern India, the entire region was plunged into darkness for 12 to 14 hours after a grid collapse early this morning." - Ashok Mitra: "After all, in China, till very recently, more than three-quarters of direct investment flowing in from overseas were from non-resident Chinese - those from Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, Canada and Western Europe. China has now attained a rate of growth of gross national product averaging 10 to 12 per cent per annum largely because of foreign investment, which has of late touched nearly 50 billion dollars." "If China could achieve this miracle, why should we, who have a civilization almost as ancient as China's and who too have millions and millions of compatriots living abroad, lag behind?" "There is near unanimity in the country's higher counsels that the NRI's (non-resident Indians) must be accorded extra-special treatment, they must be offered industrial sites at low or zero cost, power connections must be arranged for them on a priority basis, the bureaucratic formalities must be curtailed, or, rather, waived in the case of their investment proposals. For example, state governments should acquiesce to grant sales taxation holiday for five to ten years."
source: Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, November 2000 Business Telegraph 03.01.2001 "Russia has agreed to lift 50 million kgs of tea from India during the first quarter of 2001." Business Telegraph 03.01.2001 "The National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) today (02.01.2001) sought a five-year tax moratorium on e-commerce transactions and cheaper computers for schools and students in a 10-point proposal to finance minister Yashwant Sinha." The Economic Times 03.01.2001 "The Indian cellular industry added another 1.5 lakh subscribers in November, taking the total number of subscribers in the country to 2.93 million." The Economic Times 03.01.2001 "Nasscom (National Association of Software and Services Companies) is confident of USD 6.2 billion of exports in 2000-2001 and USD 9.4 billion next year. To maintain 50 per cent plus growth in exports, Nasscom, however, has demanded a tax moratorium on e-commerce for the next five years. It is also asking for changes in Income Tax Act and enchancements of physical and telecom infrastructure in Union Budget 2001." The Economic Times 03.01.2001 "... the government has initiated a probe into the dumping of analgin, a bulk drug used in anti-pyretic and anti-inflammatory formulations, which is imported from China and Taiwan. The case is significant since it has been alleged that more than 10 domestic producers of the bulk drug have downed shutters due to persistent dumping. The price of imported analgin has come down to USD 3.5 a kg in the current year, compared to USD 5.4 per kg in 1997-1998, domestic industry alleged. ... Around 140 tonnes of analgin were imported in 1999-2000 ... China was the main supplier ... In the current financial year, imports will increase to 260 tonnes." The Economic Times 03.01.2001 "The latest report card on the economy, for July-September (2000) ... The estimates suggest 6 per cent GDP growth, net on inflation. ... given our high poverty ratio and long years of poor growth, we need a higher trend rate. We need to grow 7-8 per cent and higher this decade and beoynd, to make any real dent on poverty and deprivation." ... Meanwhile, exports are buoyant, with growth for April-November put at 20 per cent. ... The fact is that the software market alone has more than doubled in the past two years, to an estimated Rs 39,500 crore." The Economic Times 03.01.2001 Interwiev with Udesh Kohli, the chaiman of Power Finance Corporation - How do you rate the last five years as far as progress and reforms in the power sector are concerned? - "The last five years, unfortunately, have been a consistent story of deterioration, particularly at the state electricity board level. We have to realise that the actual reform and performance of the power sector has to come from the state level. In 1995, there were as many as 9 SEBs (State Electricity Boards) which had a 3 per cent rate of return which is one of the mandatory requirements for PFC loans, today there is just one SEB - Tamil Nadu - which manages to earn a minimum 3 per cent with the help of subsidies from the state government. Revenue earnings of almost all the SEBs have gone down over the years and there has been precious little done to to reverse the trend. ... The revenue inflow has fallen because of the large-scale theft in most states. The country loses huge amounts, close to Rs. 30,000 crore per year, on account of transmision and distribution losses. The solution lies in proper metering, billing and collection." T.K.Bhaumik: "Competition from China has generated widespread panic in Indian industry, leading to a demand for large scale (virtually indiscriminate) application of anti-dumping and other non-tariff measures. However, there is need to understand the sources of China's competitiveness and find out if there are any lessons for us to learn. ... Chinese products are low-priced everywhere in the world and not just in India. ... Most countries have also welcomed China's entry into WTO, because it is likely to deprive China of several advantages that originate from its system of subsidies, state intervention, low labour costs, non-transparent pricing strategy etc. In other words, on entering WTO, Chinese products are likely to be costlier than at present. ... Chinese industry has the benefit of a large production base, flexible capacity and a sort of integrated structure of supporting industries in many sectors. ... Besides China has a well-developed infrastructure. ... The Economic Times 02.01.2001 PC diffusion by vertical segments (of enterprises):
"The total number of PCs in the country, both at home and in the office, was recently put at 5 million." The Economic Times 02.01.2001 "The unevenness of its internal economic growth, with a growing gap between rich and poor, and serious questions about the fractious nature of its politics, all cast doubt on how powerful India will be by 2015." - source: CIA's study Global Trends 2015 The Economic Times 02.01.2001 "Indian information technology experts have received the highest number of German 'green cards' since the scheme was launched in August last year. ... Indian IT experts received the largest number - 820 - of green cards given to foreign applicants, followed by Russians, Ukrainians and citizens of Baltic states with a combined 639 cards. A total of 4,214 green cards were issued to foreign IT experts" Business Telegraph 02.01.2001 "Exports recorded a 20.56 per cent growth to USD 28.6 billion during April to November (2000). ... Imports showed a growth of 14.44 per cent at USD 34.79 billion. ... Oil import in this period stood at USD 11.35 billion. ... Non-oil imports fell by 3.12 per cent to USD 23,44 billion. The Economic Times 01.01.2001 "By the time we wish adieu to 2001, the country could have added another two-three million cellular subscribers (the total amount of subscribers is close to 3 million now). ... If 2000 was the year when consolidation kicked-off with a bang with two top business houses - the Birlas and the Tatas - coming together with a US telecom giant (AT&T) and Hong Kong-based conglomerate Hutchison went on snapping circles, 2001 will separate the men from the boys. ... At present, the BPL group leads the pack with a total of 600,000 subscribers across the country, followed by Hutchison at close to the 600,000 mark with Bharti at 500,000." The Economic Times 01.01.2001 "All's not bright in the Kolkata sky. A city invested with prosperity and hope. But down the decades, these dreams were crushed by endless industrial strikes, lockouts and political and bureaucratic lethargy. ... A lot of it is deeply connected with the faulty education system along with the lackadaisical government policies that have totally hampered the progress of the state. ... The future is bleak as far as media and communications go. It's only IT that has scope at the moment. The rest of the industry is totally downbeat. ... The city has a lot of money to offer, but the education system is faulty and extremely backdated. ... The city is coming up fast and Kolkata today has an energetic young generation who are willing to stay back and experiment in a city which promises to change." Chandra Raha: "Moving out of traditional avenues, Calcutta's kids are now finding employment in the growing IT sector which largely concentrates in and around Salt Lake. While some are joining new companies which have set shop in these areas, many of our yesteryears' 'great kids' are returning from US to renew ties with their roots. Today, they have an opportunity to return, an option to do their dream project and Salt Lake, in terms of its land, human resource and government wooing, allows it." The Economic Times 01.01.2001 "... the Chinese 'invasion' of the Indian marketplace is perhaps the most debated issue in domestic business circles since liberalisation was unleashed in the early 1990s. ... Going purely by import data, there is no cause for domestic industry to complain. Non-oil imports have not shown any increase during the current financial year and the share of China in India's imports is not alarming. The only data that industry can quote to support its argument is a 30 per cent increase in imports from China. Even this can be dismissed by pointing out that the base is meagre. However ... it is time to add imports from Hong Kong to those directly from China to get a clear picture. Adding Hong Kong's numbers will swell the total import figure from the region by about 60 per cent. Second, India has a porous border with its neighbours. This lets Chinese goods sneak in through Nepal, Bangladesh and Burma." C. Rangarajan: "The inward looking industrialisation process that characterised the early years after independence resulted in high rates of industrial growth between 1956 and 1966. However, several weaknesses of such a process soon became evident as inefficiences crept into the system and the economy turned into an increasingly high-cost one. A common thread running through the various policy measures introduced since 1991 has been the attempt to improve the efficiency of the system. The earlier regulatory mechanism involving multitudes of controls had fragmented capacity and reduced competition even in the private sector. ... While the Industrial Policy seeks to bring about a greater competitive environment domestically, the Trade Policy seeks to improve the international competitiveness subject to the degree of protection offered by thr tariffs. At the same time, the private sector is being given larger space to operate in as some of the areas reserved exclusively earlier to the public sector are now allowed to private sector. In these areas, the public sector will have to compete with the private sector, even though the public sector may continue to play the dominat role. ... the Indian economy has done well since the liberalisation. Between 1992-93 and 1998-99, the average annual growth rate was 6.55 per cent. This is even higher than the previous high of 6.04 per cent achieved between 1985-86 and 1989-90. ... The average annual per capita income growth rate between 1992-93 and 1998-99 has been 4.7 per cent. ... While it is accepted that the growth rate in post-reform period has generally been higher, some concerns have been expressed about the slower growth rate in agriculture, lesser impact on poverty, reduction in capital expenditures of government, lack of adequate investment in social infrastructure and growing disparities in growth rates among states. The Economic Times 01.01.2001 "That (decline in the US market for communications gear in the fourth quarter of 2000) shouldn't bother investors in India, where deregulation ... is expected to open up all communications markets to private investment in 2002, if not earlier. Today's big investments will soon pay off in spades. ... India is kind to habitual worriers: government finances are a mess; privatisation is stalled; growth, even at an internationally respectable six per cent, will be lower than the recent seven per cent plus surge; spotty monsoons have dried up many parts of the country. ... Reforms are likely to to slow down - 2001 will see elections in five politically significant states - and Indian governments regard polls with the wariness of drivers staring at oversize speed breakers." Roopen Roy: "MIT's no. 1 computer guru Michael Dertouzos declared, sometime around May 2000, that India could easily increase its GDP by a trillion dollars in the next few years performing backroom white-collar tasks for Western companies. He guessed that 50 million jobs from the white-collar West could go south to India ... The average annual salary for each of those 50 million new Indian workers: USD 20,000." The Economic Times 30.12.2000 "The Wartsila Diesel scrip attracted huge volumes in recent days on buying by informed circles. Biggest producer of diesel engines in India, Wartsila is expected to turn out impressive earnings growth for the quarter ended December 2000. The stock appreciated over 70 per cent in less than eight weeks." N.Vittal: "According to the UNDP report on South Asia in 1999, if India's corruption level goes down to that of Scandinavian countries, the GDP will grow by 1.5 per cent and the FDI (foreign direct investment) will grow by 12 per cent." The Economic Times 30.12.2000 "Salaries of software professionals have been going up by 25 per cent in the last few years. Experienced and middle managers in the software industry have been witnessing salary hikes of 60 per cent and more." The Economic Times 30.12.2000 "In 1991... the Indian power sector was opened up to foreign investment. Many independent power producers (IPPs), the likes of Enron and PowerGen, rushed into India to build power stations lured by talk of a 200 million middle class and a huge gap between demand and supply of power. ... most of them have now left India, worn out by the prolonged delays associated with setting up power plants in India. The main stumbling block has been in designing a payment mechanism in a situation where the main customer, the state electricity board, is bankrupt. ... However, Indian power utilities and IPPs ... have gone ahead with their projects. Despite lack of guarantees and escrow covers they have added over 12,000 MW during the last decade." The Economic Times 30.12.2000 "India has demanded better market access for its professionals in other countries through a system of liberalised visas. It has urged the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to enable this by speeding up the proposed liberalisation of the General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS). The Economic Times 29.12.2000 "Privatisation was the buzzword in the Indian aviation sector during the year 2000. The landmark decision to hand over the management of Air-India (AI) and Indian Airlines (IA) to private parties, the steps taken to lease out four international airports and the bid to establish an economic regulatory authority for the civil aviation sector have made it a watershed year." Editorial, The Economic Times 29.12.2000 "High taxes and duties inflate the sticker price of Indian cars. At today's rates, about 65 per cent of what buyer pays for a car goes to the government as taxes. Tax rates, that cripple the growth of many sectors in India, must come down across the board." The Economic Times 29.12.2000 "In approximately three months' time, India will remove ban on the import of 715 items, completing a two-year phaseout of all quantitative restrictions (QR) that had choked trade flows nearly 30 years. The phaseout will be accompanied by moans and howls from industry, which is slowing down in step with the rest of the economy. Indian manufacturers, blaming everything from the high cost of power and credit to Chinese imports, want the government to hike levels of protection. The government seems willing to play along. Industry lobbyists have pointed out that imports from China jumped by a fifth from 1998-1999 to 1999-2000. They forget to mention that at today's levels, stuff from China makes up a tiny, sub-three per cent nibble of India's total imports. The Economic Times 29.12.2000 "Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen, who had praised Kerala's efforts in the social sector, rang a warning bell asking the state to shape up to the emerging era of globalisation or be left out in the cold. Mr. Sen's candid remarks on the market economy left the political leadership, especially the Left parties, deeply disappointed as they had expected the renowned economist to praise the so-called Kerala Model of growth. Instead, Mr. Sen demolished the idea of a Kerala Model, saying the state's socio-economic growth could in no way be dubbed a model, adding that a model was a frozen entity with an aura of perfection, which Kerala's growth record has not been. 'I would call it the Kerala experience, rather than the Kerala Model', Mr. Sen said." The Telegraph 28.12.2000 "... (West Bengal) chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee on Wednesday (27.12.) unveiled plans to set up an IT complex in the city (Calcutta). The complex, to be the first of its kind in the state, will be built by Webel (West Bengal Electronics Industry Development Corporation Limited). ... Bhattacharjee said such a big complex was an absolute necessity in view of the 100-plus projects lined up in the state by reputed companies from India and abroad. 'Besides, others have evinced interest', he said." ... The electronics complex in Salt Lake was built by Webel in the late Eighties after the Centre refused to provide funds for it." The Economic Times 27.12.2000 "India will seek restoration of quatitative restrictions (QR) on some agricultural produce while focusing on food security and livelihood concerns during World Trade Organisation (WTO) negotiations, agriculture minister Nitish Kumar said. India's proposal, to be submitted to the WTO in January, will focus on the need for developed countries to bring down tariffs, eliminate food subsidies and reduce domestic support to the permissible five per cent level, Mr. Kumar said. 'On our side, we are stressing on the livelihood issue and self-sufficiency factors with around 65 per cent of Indians dependant on the agriculture sector for their livelihood. As such, any produce which directly affects our livelihood will not be permitted to enter the country', Mr. Kumar said. 'Despite our efforts to check imports of such products through anti-dumping measures and high import duties, some of these goods are continuing to come into the country and thereby threatening our livelihood. In view of this, we are seeking that developing countries should be allowed to restore quantitative restrictions in some cases', said Mr. Kumar. ... 'We feel most of the developing countries will share our views' the minister added." The Economic Times 27.12.2000 "The West Bengal government, on Tuesday (26.12.), decided to provide Dunlop India Ltd financial relief, which the company had sought earlier. The power department had been asked to grant relief from current electricity bills to keep the company running." Editorial, The Economic Times 27.12.2000 "The government has decided to allow overseas investors to own up to 100 per cent of non-banking finance companies. This is welcome ...". Editorial, The Economic Times 27.12.2000 "The government will soon have to kick itself if it ignores the most recent plea of the cotton mills that it should lower all duties and additional levies on imports of cotton. Failing that, mills will neither be able to reduce costs or improve quality to face competition which will surely follow next year's post-QR (quantitative restriction) regime. ... Official levies on these (long-staple cotton) are so high in fact that they account for 65 per cent of mill input costs. Meanwhile, the mills are already burdened by overstaffing, old equipment, the mafiosi, and regulations that impede sake for modernisation and stiff competition from unorganised sector looms. ... Comparing China and India ... both economies had set out even on textile and garment expots, but China was exporting garments worth USD 25 billion already by 1996 whereas India could manage only 4.6 billion. Ramesh Lakshman: "Exporters can no longer enjoy tax free status. They have five more years to go. The proposed changes have far reaching implications and may call for strategic changes in their planning. Units in Free Trade Zones (FTZ) and Export Oriented Units (EOU) are entitled to 100 % tax exemption for a period of 10 consecutive years from the year of the manufacturing. The period was extended from five to 10 years from assessment year 1999-2000."
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Intia kasvattaa nopeasti
talouttaan, mutta ei kiihdytä uudistusten tahtia* Kehitys Utveckling 2-2001 (11.03.2001 - Juhani Artto) Intialainen Economic Times julkaisi joulukuun lopulla mahtavan monikansallisen yhtiön ABB:n johtajan Göran Lindahlin haastattelun. Aluksi jutussa kerrotaan, että Lindahl pitää itseään Intian ystävänä ja että hänen mielestään Intia on potentiaalisesti suunnaton alue ABB:n liiketoiminnalle. Loput tiiviistä haastattelusta on miljardin asukkaan maan valtiollisen johdon kovaa arvostelua. Pääongelmaksi Lindahl nimeää valtiollisen kontrollin. "Intian pitää lopettaa 90 prosenttia säännöistään. Sen täytyy ravistella perinpohjaisesti virkakoneistoaan. Tiedättekö, että ympäri maailmaa byrokratian tehoa nostetaan soveltamalla erilaisia kiihokkeita", Lindahl kysyy retorisesti. Hän näkee syvän kuilun siinä, mitä Intia haluaa tehdä ja mitä maassa oikeasti tapahtuu. "Intian tulisi uudistua edes naapuriensa tahdissa", Lindahl toteaa viitaten Kiinan ja myös Brasilian kykyyn houkutella ulkomaisia sijoittajia. Intia on vastaanottanut suoria ulkomaisia sijoituksia (FDI) vuodesta 1991 lähtien yhteensä noin 15 miljardin dollarin arvosta. Kiinaan niitä on tehty viime aikoina 40 miljardin dollarin tahdilla vuodessa. Lindahl kummeksuu intialaisten päättäjien uskoa siihen, että Intia voi menestyä pitäytyen omassa muutosvauhdissaan riippumatta siitä, miten muut etenevät. "Välillä päätöksiä tehdään ikään kuin vain sormia napsauttamalla, mutta seuraavalla käynnillä huomaan, että kaikki onkin entisellään." Lindahl kärjistää sanomaansa toteamalla, että on kaksi aluetta, joilla Intia on menestynyt hyvin: kauneuskilpailut ja tietotekniikka. "Molemmissa valtion rooli on ollut minimaalinen ja yksityisten aloitteiden merkitys ratkaiseva. "Siitä on opittava jotain. Liikemiesten on annettava hoitaa asioita", Lindahl päättelee. Kohu Kiinan tuotteiden Näin suorasukainen isäntämaan johdon arvostelu vierailevien huippuliikemiesten haastatteluissa ei ole maailmalla tavallista. Economic Times perustelee haastattelun painoarvoa ABB:n lähes puolivuosisataisella kokemuksella Intiasta sekä Lindahlin 30-vuotisella uralla ABB:n ja sen edeltäjien palveluksessa. Lisäperusteena lehti mainitsee ruotsalaisjohtajan maineen ripeänä yrityssaneeraajaana, jonka johdolla ABB on siirtänyt merkittävän osan tuotannostaan teollisuusmaista kehitysmaihin. Lundahl itse kannustaa ottamaan sanottavansa vakavasti kertomalla, että ABB:llä on useita hankesuunnitelmia Intian varalle. Lindahlin haastattelu ei synnyttänyt Intiassa julkista keskustelua. Se johtuu siitä, että hänen arvioissaan ja neuvoissaan ei ollut intialaisille mitään uutta. Samantapaisia viestejä Intian päättäjät ovat vuosien mittaan kuulleet jatkuvasti niin koti- kuin ulkomaisilta talouden liberalisointia kannattavilta tahoilta, eikä painostus ole jäänyt tehottomaksi. Päättäjät ovat vähentäneet kymmenessä vuodessa talouden valtiollista sääntelyä suorastaan kumouksellisella tavalla. Lindahl arvostelee armottomasti, koska hänen ja monen muun suurliikemiehen päämääränä on nopeuttaa Intian talouden vapauttamista sääntelystä ja avaamista ulkomaisten yritysten toiminnalle. Se on teema, josta intialaiset väittelivät julkisesti, räväkästi, monipuolisesti ja tauotta jo ennen 1990-lukua, viime vuosista puhumattakaan. Viime talvena väittelyn suuriin aiheisiin kuului kiinalaisten tuotteiden invaasio Intian markkinoille. Kohun panivat liikkeelle yritykset, jotka olivat menettäneet lyhyessä ajassa markkinoitaan kiinalaisille paristoille, leluille, televisioille, tuulettimille, tekstiilikuiduille jne. Häviäjät syyttivät Kiinaa kaupan kansainvälisiä normeja rikkovasta dumppauksesta. Heidän mukaansa kiinalaisten tuotteiden ylivoimaisen halvat hinnat eivät voi vastata todellisia tuotantokustannuksia. Väittely siirtyi uuteen vaiheeseen, kun valittajille huomautettiin, että Kiinan osuus Intian tuonnista on alle kolme prosenttia. Valittajat vastasivat, että kiinalaisten tuotteiden vyörytys perustuu osaksi salakuljetukseen, jota tuonnin tilastoijat eivät pysty rekisteröimään. Painetta WTO:n Kohu ulkomaisten tuontituotteiden uhkasta ei lopu tähän, koska Intia joutuu kansainvälisten sitoumustensa mukaisesti lopettamaan vähitellen määrälliset tuontirajoitukset. Talouden monopolististen rakenteiden kielteinen vaikutus kotimaisten tuotteiden hintakilpailukykyyn paljastuu yhä armottomammin. Maatalousministeri Nitish Kumar ilmoitti joulukuun lopulla, että Intia tulee vaatimaan Maailman kauppajärjestön WTO:n neuvotteluissa itselleen oikeutta eräiden elintarvikkeiden määrällisiin tuontirajoituksiin. "Tulemme korostamaan omavaraisuuden tarvetta sekä sitä, että 65 prosenttia intialaisista saa toimeentulonsa suoraan tai välillisesti maataloudesta", ministeri totesi. Hän arveli, että Intia saa asiassa rinnalleen kehitysmaiden enemmistön. Kumar toisti myös Intian ja monen muun kehitysmaan vaatimuksen, jonka mukaan teollisuusmaiden on supistettava maataloustukiaisiaan ja elintarvikkeiden tuontirajoituksiaan. Samaan sarjaan kuuluu Intian vaatimus helpottaa intialaisten asiantuntijoiden pääsyä teollisuusmaiden työmarkkinoille. Neuvottelufoorumina on tässäkin asiassa WTO, jossa Intia koettaa jouduttaa kaupan ja palvelujen yleissopimuksen GATS:n viemistä käytäntöön. Kehitysmaista Intia vastaanottaa ylivoimaisesti eniten teollisuusmaissa työskentelevien kansalaistensa rahalähetyksiä. Täysin riippumatta WTO:n tulevista ratkaisuista Intialla on joka tapauksessa suunnattomia ongelmia ratkottavanaan sen koettaessa nousta lähivuosikymmeninä maailman talouden suurten joukkoon. Sähkön tuotanto ja jakelu on tarjonnut siitä pitkään surullisen esimerkin. Sähkön tuotanto ja jakelu on viitenä viime vuonna johdonmukaisesti vain rappeutunut, Power Finance Corporationin hallituksen puheenjohtaja Udesh Kohli yleisti tammikuussa. Hän arvioi, että sähköyhtiöiltä varastetaan(!) vuosittain noin 40 miljardin markan arvosta sähköä. Vielä vakavammaksi elintärkeän sektorin tilanteen tekee voimaloiden käyttöasteen pysyminen alle 60 prosentissa. Vuosikymmen sitten Intian päättäjät vapauttivat voimasektoria ulkomaiselle kilpailulle. Ryhmä monikansallisia jättejä tarttui tilaisuuteen, mutta useimmat niistä ovat vetäytyneet Intiasta liian hankaliksi osoittautuneiden olosuhteiden opettamina. Toinen synkkä kestoteema koskee korruptiota. UNDP on arvioinut, että se jarruttaa talouden vuosikasvua 1,5 prosenttia, jos vertailukohtana on Pohjoismaissa vallitseva korruption taso. Mihinkään vakaviin yrityksiin korruption vähentämiseksi Intian valtiolliset johtajat eivät ole ryhtyneet. Tietotekniikan nousu Ylivoimaisilta tuntuvia ongelmia ja puutteita lueteltaessa Intialle ja intialaisille ei tehdä oikeutta, ellei samalla muistuteta, että kaikesta huolimatta sen talous on kasvanut pitkään hyvällä tahdilla. Ajanjaksolla 1992/93-1998/99 Intian bruttokansantulo henkeä kohti lisääntyi 4,7 prosenttia. Kehitys on jatkunut sen jälkeen samansuuntaisena ja asiantuntijat ennustavat, että vahvahko meno jatkuu lähiaikoina. Eniten optimismia ruokkii tietotekniikka-ala. Ohjelmistotuotannon osuus Intian viennistä on harpannut lyhyessä ajassa kymmenekseen ja kasvunäkymät ovat komeat. Puhelinpalvelujen (call centers) vienti seuraa perässä muutaman vuoden viipeellä. Rohkeimmissa yhdysvaltalaisissa arvioissa alalle odotetaan syntyvän miljoonia uusia työpaikkoja ja puhelinpalvelujen kasvavan vuositasolla jopa kymmenien miljardien dollarien valuutan lähteeksi. Lindahlin ehdottamaa talouden nopeutettua virtaviivaistamista Intian hallitus ei ole toteuttamassa. Vuoden alkukuukausina päättäjät päinvastoin jarruttivat uudistuksia. Sisäisesti eripurainen hallitus kuuntelee usean tärkeän osavaltion vaalivuonna herkästi niiden ääntä, jotka uhkaavat hävitä ratkaisuissa, joilla Intiaa yhdennetään maailmantalouteen. Heihin kuuluu ennen muuta miljoonia maaseudun tuottajia ja muita asukkaita sekä kotimarkkinateollisuuden merkittävä osa. *Juttu perustuu osaksi kirjoittajan viime talvena Intiassa kokoamaan aineistoon. |